The new year has arrived and as usual it is full of predictions, so I thought I would throw mine in as well and we can all judge their accuracy as the year progresses.
Obviously some of the factors that are going to affect our property markets are how the R.B.A. reacts to our two speed economy, the European debt crisis and its impact on financing overall, with a general tightening being likely and I believe, more importantly, how both of these impact on the confidence of the average consumer.
With almost 100% of economists agreeing, it seems a reasonably safe bet that the R.B.A.’s first meeting of the year in February will deliver another cut in official rates. Interestingly the ANZ Bank in particular has disengaged from this cycle and is announcing its own rate decisions each month prior to the R.B.A.’s monthly meeting. They cite other global funding issues being equally important as the R.B.A.’s official cash rate in defending this decision. January is the first month for these announcements so it will be interesting to see how they move, but with competition increasing within the banking sector generally I think we will see rates fall over the year, which can only be a good thing for our industry as a whole.
The European debt crisis still has a long way to go in my opinion, with many twists and turns throughout the year to come. I am neither wise enough or game enough to predict the eventual outcome but I am sure the constant reporting of this major bad news story in the media will continue to have a negative impact on consumer confidence generally as well as share prices across most sectors. It is this lack of consumer confidence that looms as a major threat to the year ahead, not just for our industry but the economy as a whole.
The State Government decision to remove the Stamp Duty concession for first home buyers of existing homes saw a rush of activity from this sector at the end of last year, but if history is any guide I don’t expect we will see many first home buyers now for the next 6 months or so, as was the case when the government removed the extra $7,000 first home buyers grant a couple of years ago. These types of incentives tend to bring demand forward and then leave a hole when they are removed.
On a positive note I believe we should see strong demand from investors with rents continuing to climb and vacancy factors at near record lows in most areas. This is leading to increased rental yields generally and in a number of cases, positively geared investments. This trend is likely to continue, particularly if capital growth is subdued and interest rates continue to fall. It may also see some frustrated renters “bite the bullet” and look to buy, particularly if affordability improves.
Over the whole state I feel the market is likely to remain patchy, some areas doing well while others struggle. Local issues will have an impact as the floods in the Northern Rivers area and the mass layoffs by Bluescope in the Illawarra did during the year just past.
So it looks like a year of both challenge and opportunity, and I personally hope that we can assist our members meet those challenges and capitalise on the opportunities going forward with our cutting edge technology, cheaper prices and great staff giving great service.
All the best of the year ahead.
Dale Whittaker
E.A.C. - Chairman
.JPG)
